Pot Odds Flush Draw
2021年4月13日Register here: http://gg.gg/p10el
Getting down the basic fundamentals of pot odds and implied odds will help you make better decisions in terms of the price you’re getting to continue. And being cognizant of reverse implied odds situations so you can look to avoid them and the costly spots they can put you in will help save you a lot of chips in the long run.
Pot Odds
Pot Odds are simply the price that the pot is giving us to call right now, based on how much it is to stay in the pot and how much the pot will be after calling.
This is particularly useful when in a situation where you’re facing a bet with a drawing hand (such as a flush draw). Pot odds will tell you whether is it correct for you to call or fold based on what size our opponent bet and how many cards that will improve our hand. For example, if someone makes a ½-pot bet on the flop, you must have at least 25% equity to continue based on expressed odds. That said, you must exercise caution when calculating pot odds for flop bets. To illustrate why this is the case, suppose you want to call with a flush draw (which usually has about 36% equity).
Example:
*The pot is 50. Your opponent bets another 50, so there is now 100 in the pot.
*It is 50 to call, so we are getting pot odds of 100-50, or simply 2-1 to call.
*In terms of equity, we are adding 33% to the pot. If we call and win the pot 33% of the time, we break even in the long run and this is an equitable call.
Put simply, pot odds means is there enough in the pot to call a bet. The fundamental principle of playing a drawing hand in poker is that you need a pot big enough to call. When we have a flush draw or a straight draw we will make our hand on the next card almost 20% of the time (19% for flush. As you can see in the above table, if you’re holding a flush draw after the flop (9 outs) you have a 19.1% chance of hitting it on the turn or expressed in odds, you’re 4.22-to-1 against. The odds are slightly better from the turn to the river, and much better when you have both cards still to come. Suppose you have top pair on the flop, and your opponent has a nine-out flush draw. If the pot is $10 and you bet $5, then the pot will be $15 to your opponent with $5 to call and see the turn. This gives immediate pot odds of 15:5, or 3:1. The chances of your opponent actually hitting the flush are about 4:1.
Here is a table of common pot odds calculations:
Implied Odds
Implied Odds refer to money that we can reasonably expect to win on future streets when improved to the best hand. These do take some additional estimation so may not be exact, but useful nonetheless.
We’ll use the example from above:
*You make the 50 call with suited connectors and you’ve flopped a flush draw.
*The chance to make the flush on the turn is roughly 4-1 (4.55-1, to be precise).
*You’re only getting 2-1 pot odds to call, so you’re not being given a good price to call with a flush draw.
*However, considering that there are still two more rounds of betting to come, you can reasonably expect to win more from making the call and turning the flush
Reverse Implied Odds
This one is more referential of a situation where the implied odds of continuing in the hand does not represent the true value, and you start to consider how much you will lose by making the desired hand because of the nature of the action that has taken place already.
For example:
*You bet 50 preflop with King-Jack offsuit.
*The Button 3-bets (reraises) you to 200. The price of calling is 150.
*Consider that your opponent’s typical 3-betting range will be cards which dominate your KJ. For instance, if the opponent holds AK/AA and the flop is king-high, or the opponent holds QQ/AJ and the flop is jack-high, you may well continue putting money into the pot with top-pair despite holding the losing hand.
*When KJ is winning, you don’t expect to see much value from future streets. For instance, against a small pocket pair, a jack-high board will limit the value which can be implied.
*Therefore, KJ is a hand which suffers from distinct Reverse Implied Odds. For similar reasons, this can also arise if you are calling to see a spade flush with one low spade, or you are on the low end of a straight-draw.
Conclusion
Calculating odds, outs and probabilities can seem difficult and time-consuming but the basics are quite simple and the ability to make simple calculations can help you build a very solid foundation for your game. This part of poker is worth learning, especially if you intend to progress further in the game.
If you continually play draws without getting the right odds, you will lose money in the long run. There will always be players who don’t care about odds and call too often. These players will occasionally get lucky and win a pot, but mostly they will lose and pay for it. On the other hand, you might be folding draws in situations where the odds are favorable.
Test your knowledge with our short quiz below
Pot odds, equity and expected value are important interrelated concepts in poker. As a beginner it is important that you understand the basics if you want to get ahead of your opponents.
The math side of poker is often ignored by a lot of new players but by simply spending a bit of time learning these simple concepts you will be able to improve your game drastically.
So we will first go through each of them individually and then a full example to tie it all together in the next few articles.
Table Of ContentsPot Odds: The Definition
The odds which are being offered to you when your opponent bets are called pots odds. Essentially it is how much you will win vs how much you have to risk – your risk to reward ratio.
This is particularly useful when in a situation where you’re facing a bet with a drawing hand (such as a flush draw). Pot odds will tell you whether is it correct for you to call or fold based on what size our opponent bet and how many cards that will improve our hand.
We can also use pot odds to determine whether or not we can call a river bet based on how often we expect our opponent to be bluffing.Pot Odds: Using Ratios
To take an example of when we are facing a bet on the river when we have A9 of diamonds:
On the river our opponent bets $26 into a $41.5. If we called would be risking $26 and our reward is $41.5 already in the pot plus our opponents bet of $26.
This means that we are getting odds of 67.5: 26 (67.5 = 41.5+26). This is approximately 2.6:1.Pot Odds: The Percentage Method
We can also convert that into a percentage (percentages are typically more intuitive) the result is 28%.
So if we expect to win 28% of the time or more we can call profitably.
How did we get that number?
Take the amount we have to call ($26) and divide it by the amount we have to call plus how much is in the pot:
Pot odds percentage = 26/(26+67.5) = 27.8%
Here is a summary of the numbers of outs and the pot odds associated for number of outs:Why Are Pot Odds Useful?
It first lets us determine our risk to reward ratio. We can then use this along with the strength of our and our opponents potential hands in order to make better decisions.
If we have a very weak hand we should not be willing to call very large bets, only smaller bet sizes; in other words we must have very good pot odds in order to call.
This makes sense – if someone was to bet $1 into a $100 pot on the river we will continue with almost all of our range.
The greater the pot odds (the smaller our opponent bets) the more likely we should be to continue with our hand. Conversely, the smaller the pot odds (the larger our opponent bets) the less likely we should be to continue with our hands. The larger our opponent bets the more the requirement for an extremely strong hand.Implied Pot Odds
Implied odds is simply the additional chips we expect to win when we hit our hand.
For example if we were to hit a flush on the turn or river, the hand won’t just end – we still have an opportunity to win more money from our opponent.
This will reduce the pot odds we need to call profitably. The exception to this is when our opponent has pushed all in – we call we cannot win any more chips.
The reason we call preflop with small unpaired hands is not because we expect to have the best hand all that often; but because we expect to win a large pot when we hit a big hand such as three of a kind.
The reason we call is because with a hand like three of a kind, we have large implied odds and if we hit our hand we expect to win a big pot.
Here is an explainer video of implied odds from GreenBeanVideos:A Real World Example of Implied odds:
The reason you go to College or University and get a degree is not because of the return you would expect immediately after graduation. It is because of the additional value a degree would bring you in the years after gradation through income, job opportunities etc. The same applied to poker.
Unfortunately implied odds cannot be directly calculated like pot odds – we have to guesstimate the amount our opponent will be willing to pay us off after we make our hand.
If we think our opponent has a very strong hand, and we stand to make a better one, we will have large implied odds.
If our opponent has a weak hand, we will have little implied odds.
Additionally, if we believe our opponent is a very bad player we will usually have large implied odds as he will be more likely to make mistakes and pay us with hands that he shouldn’t have.Royal Flush Odds Draw Poker
Finally, if he is a good player we will have significantly less implied odds.Pot Odds For Flush Draw
Here is a quick recap on everything we covered on pot odds:Pot Odds Calculator
You do not need a fancy piece of software to work out your pot odds. As we have seen, it is simply the ratio of the bet you have to call to the size of the pot (including your opponents bet). You can also use a calculator to calculate the the percentage odds (or roughly do it in your head, you don’t need to be extremely accurate)
However, on of the best pieces of software you can use in conjunction with calculating pot odds from cardschat.com.
This piece of software can be used to work out your pot equity which we have discussed in detail in other lessons.Poker Odds Flush Draw On FlopConclusions
You should now be able to work out pot odds and when coupled with our other lessons, you should have a basic grasp on the math of poker.
Follow up this lesson first with Pot Equity and Expected Value (EV)
Register here: http://gg.gg/p10el
https://diarynote.indered.space
Getting down the basic fundamentals of pot odds and implied odds will help you make better decisions in terms of the price you’re getting to continue. And being cognizant of reverse implied odds situations so you can look to avoid them and the costly spots they can put you in will help save you a lot of chips in the long run.
Pot Odds
Pot Odds are simply the price that the pot is giving us to call right now, based on how much it is to stay in the pot and how much the pot will be after calling.
This is particularly useful when in a situation where you’re facing a bet with a drawing hand (such as a flush draw). Pot odds will tell you whether is it correct for you to call or fold based on what size our opponent bet and how many cards that will improve our hand. For example, if someone makes a ½-pot bet on the flop, you must have at least 25% equity to continue based on expressed odds. That said, you must exercise caution when calculating pot odds for flop bets. To illustrate why this is the case, suppose you want to call with a flush draw (which usually has about 36% equity).
Example:
*The pot is 50. Your opponent bets another 50, so there is now 100 in the pot.
*It is 50 to call, so we are getting pot odds of 100-50, or simply 2-1 to call.
*In terms of equity, we are adding 33% to the pot. If we call and win the pot 33% of the time, we break even in the long run and this is an equitable call.
Put simply, pot odds means is there enough in the pot to call a bet. The fundamental principle of playing a drawing hand in poker is that you need a pot big enough to call. When we have a flush draw or a straight draw we will make our hand on the next card almost 20% of the time (19% for flush. As you can see in the above table, if you’re holding a flush draw after the flop (9 outs) you have a 19.1% chance of hitting it on the turn or expressed in odds, you’re 4.22-to-1 against. The odds are slightly better from the turn to the river, and much better when you have both cards still to come. Suppose you have top pair on the flop, and your opponent has a nine-out flush draw. If the pot is $10 and you bet $5, then the pot will be $15 to your opponent with $5 to call and see the turn. This gives immediate pot odds of 15:5, or 3:1. The chances of your opponent actually hitting the flush are about 4:1.
Here is a table of common pot odds calculations:
Implied Odds
Implied Odds refer to money that we can reasonably expect to win on future streets when improved to the best hand. These do take some additional estimation so may not be exact, but useful nonetheless.
We’ll use the example from above:
*You make the 50 call with suited connectors and you’ve flopped a flush draw.
*The chance to make the flush on the turn is roughly 4-1 (4.55-1, to be precise).
*You’re only getting 2-1 pot odds to call, so you’re not being given a good price to call with a flush draw.
*However, considering that there are still two more rounds of betting to come, you can reasonably expect to win more from making the call and turning the flush
Reverse Implied Odds
This one is more referential of a situation where the implied odds of continuing in the hand does not represent the true value, and you start to consider how much you will lose by making the desired hand because of the nature of the action that has taken place already.
For example:
*You bet 50 preflop with King-Jack offsuit.
*The Button 3-bets (reraises) you to 200. The price of calling is 150.
*Consider that your opponent’s typical 3-betting range will be cards which dominate your KJ. For instance, if the opponent holds AK/AA and the flop is king-high, or the opponent holds QQ/AJ and the flop is jack-high, you may well continue putting money into the pot with top-pair despite holding the losing hand.
*When KJ is winning, you don’t expect to see much value from future streets. For instance, against a small pocket pair, a jack-high board will limit the value which can be implied.
*Therefore, KJ is a hand which suffers from distinct Reverse Implied Odds. For similar reasons, this can also arise if you are calling to see a spade flush with one low spade, or you are on the low end of a straight-draw.
Conclusion
Calculating odds, outs and probabilities can seem difficult and time-consuming but the basics are quite simple and the ability to make simple calculations can help you build a very solid foundation for your game. This part of poker is worth learning, especially if you intend to progress further in the game.
If you continually play draws without getting the right odds, you will lose money in the long run. There will always be players who don’t care about odds and call too often. These players will occasionally get lucky and win a pot, but mostly they will lose and pay for it. On the other hand, you might be folding draws in situations where the odds are favorable.
Test your knowledge with our short quiz below
Pot odds, equity and expected value are important interrelated concepts in poker. As a beginner it is important that you understand the basics if you want to get ahead of your opponents.
The math side of poker is often ignored by a lot of new players but by simply spending a bit of time learning these simple concepts you will be able to improve your game drastically.
So we will first go through each of them individually and then a full example to tie it all together in the next few articles.
Table Of ContentsPot Odds: The Definition
The odds which are being offered to you when your opponent bets are called pots odds. Essentially it is how much you will win vs how much you have to risk – your risk to reward ratio.
This is particularly useful when in a situation where you’re facing a bet with a drawing hand (such as a flush draw). Pot odds will tell you whether is it correct for you to call or fold based on what size our opponent bet and how many cards that will improve our hand.
We can also use pot odds to determine whether or not we can call a river bet based on how often we expect our opponent to be bluffing.Pot Odds: Using Ratios
To take an example of when we are facing a bet on the river when we have A9 of diamonds:
On the river our opponent bets $26 into a $41.5. If we called would be risking $26 and our reward is $41.5 already in the pot plus our opponents bet of $26.
This means that we are getting odds of 67.5: 26 (67.5 = 41.5+26). This is approximately 2.6:1.Pot Odds: The Percentage Method
We can also convert that into a percentage (percentages are typically more intuitive) the result is 28%.
So if we expect to win 28% of the time or more we can call profitably.
How did we get that number?
Take the amount we have to call ($26) and divide it by the amount we have to call plus how much is in the pot:
Pot odds percentage = 26/(26+67.5) = 27.8%
Here is a summary of the numbers of outs and the pot odds associated for number of outs:Why Are Pot Odds Useful?
It first lets us determine our risk to reward ratio. We can then use this along with the strength of our and our opponents potential hands in order to make better decisions.
If we have a very weak hand we should not be willing to call very large bets, only smaller bet sizes; in other words we must have very good pot odds in order to call.
This makes sense – if someone was to bet $1 into a $100 pot on the river we will continue with almost all of our range.
The greater the pot odds (the smaller our opponent bets) the more likely we should be to continue with our hand. Conversely, the smaller the pot odds (the larger our opponent bets) the less likely we should be to continue with our hands. The larger our opponent bets the more the requirement for an extremely strong hand.Implied Pot Odds
Implied odds is simply the additional chips we expect to win when we hit our hand.
For example if we were to hit a flush on the turn or river, the hand won’t just end – we still have an opportunity to win more money from our opponent.
This will reduce the pot odds we need to call profitably. The exception to this is when our opponent has pushed all in – we call we cannot win any more chips.
The reason we call preflop with small unpaired hands is not because we expect to have the best hand all that often; but because we expect to win a large pot when we hit a big hand such as three of a kind.
The reason we call is because with a hand like three of a kind, we have large implied odds and if we hit our hand we expect to win a big pot.
Here is an explainer video of implied odds from GreenBeanVideos:A Real World Example of Implied odds:
The reason you go to College or University and get a degree is not because of the return you would expect immediately after graduation. It is because of the additional value a degree would bring you in the years after gradation through income, job opportunities etc. The same applied to poker.
Unfortunately implied odds cannot be directly calculated like pot odds – we have to guesstimate the amount our opponent will be willing to pay us off after we make our hand.
If we think our opponent has a very strong hand, and we stand to make a better one, we will have large implied odds.
If our opponent has a weak hand, we will have little implied odds.
Additionally, if we believe our opponent is a very bad player we will usually have large implied odds as he will be more likely to make mistakes and pay us with hands that he shouldn’t have.Royal Flush Odds Draw Poker
Finally, if he is a good player we will have significantly less implied odds.Pot Odds For Flush Draw
Here is a quick recap on everything we covered on pot odds:Pot Odds Calculator
You do not need a fancy piece of software to work out your pot odds. As we have seen, it is simply the ratio of the bet you have to call to the size of the pot (including your opponents bet). You can also use a calculator to calculate the the percentage odds (or roughly do it in your head, you don’t need to be extremely accurate)
However, on of the best pieces of software you can use in conjunction with calculating pot odds from cardschat.com.
This piece of software can be used to work out your pot equity which we have discussed in detail in other lessons.Poker Odds Flush Draw On FlopConclusions
You should now be able to work out pot odds and when coupled with our other lessons, you should have a basic grasp on the math of poker.
Follow up this lesson first with Pot Equity and Expected Value (EV)
Register here: http://gg.gg/p10el
https://diarynote.indered.space
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